What do the two sides say?
Russia has acknowledged that the Moskva, its flagship Black Sea missile cruiser, has sunk. It attributes the loss to an unexplained fire, which ignited ammunition, and says it capsized “in choppy seas” while being towed to port. Ukraine says it hit the Moskva with at least one of its Neptune anti-shipping missiles, and that this caused it to sink.
What is the Neptune system?
The subsonic Neptune is based on the old Soviet Kh-35 anti-ship missile with improved range and electronics, and has a range of almost 200 miles. First coming into service in Ukraine last year, the whole system comprises a truck-based mobile launcher, four missiles, a reload vehicle, and a command and control vehicle. It is designed to fly close to the surface of the sea to avoid detection.
If it was a missile, why didn’t Russia detect it?
The Neptune system is designed to be deployed from coastal areas, which in this case would mean it was being operated close to an area of intense Russian military activity. If the damage was caused by a Neptune missile, the Russians appear not to have been aware of it until too late.
During the Falklands war in 1982, the British lost six ships, underlining to navies around the world the vulnerability of ships to missile attack. Slava class ships like the Moskva were designed to be equipped with with S-300F Fort long-range air defence system, a naval version of the S300, which has some utility against ballistic missiles.
Modern naval forces would also be expected to be equipped with some kind of radar warning receiver system to alert it to the presence of enemy radar systems, although both are far from foolproof.
One claim is that the missile or missiles were fired from a hidden battery close to Odesa while the Moskva’s crew was distracted by two Turkish-supplied drones operating nearby.
How big a deal is the loss of the Moskva?
Whatever the cause of the sinking, it is hard to see this as anything short of a pretty catastrophic incident for Russia. Naval vessels are designed to survive attack as much as possible. Bulkhead doors connecting different sections are intended to control the spread of fire and hull breaches can be isolated. Naval vessels also have a higher level of firefighting capability than civilian counterparts.
The sinking of the Black Sea fleet’s flagship is certainly a coup for Ukrainian morale and a symbolic blow to Russia. However it is worth recalling that Ukraine scuttled its own flagship in port earlier in the conflict, and that British naval forces continued to operate effectively in the Falklands despite the loss of ships.
And while significant, the sinking probably does not alter the Russian navy’s continuing and largely uncontested ability to blockade Ukraine’s coastline.
The big question, however, is whether it could affect any future Russian move to land amphibious forces, perhaps as part of an assault on Odesa.
