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A Party Divided: The Kurdish Peace Process and the Battle for the CHP’s Presidential Nomination in Turkey

As Turkey prepares for its next presidential election, the Kurdish peace process has once again thrust the Kurdish issue into the center of national politics, stirring intense debate within the country’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government has skillfully leveraged this issue to create discord within the CHP by initiating a new phase in the Kurdish peace process. This encompasses symbolic gestures, including the support for Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli’s engagement with pro-Kurdish Democratic Equality and Freedom Party (DEM) members, as well as punitive measures, such as the arrest of Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Özer. The CHP faces a challenging situation as it attempts to reconcile nationalist expectations with the aspirations of moderate and Kurdish-leaning voters, complicating its pursuit of a presidential candidate. The situation is further complicated by CHP leader Özgür Özel, whose measured response to Özer’s arrest has elicited criticism from within the party. Certain members assert that Özel is influenced by Erdoğan, especially via a "normalization process" aimed at aligning the CHP’s policies with the government's agenda. This perceived reluctance to confront the government on issues of judicial overreach, especially in cases like Özer’s arrest, has created additional division within the party and fueled skepticism about Özel’s leadership. Key CHP figures, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş, represent distinct factions within the party. İmamoğlu embodies a more inclusive approach, seeking to attract diverse demographics, while Yavaş appeals to the CHP’s traditional nationalist core. Erdoğan’s tactics, along with Özel’s perceived compliance, have deepened the divide between these two camps, forcing the CHP to confront its internal rifts over the Kurdish issue as it considers its broader strategy for challenging Erdoğan’s administration. Erdoğan’s Role in Sowing Division One of the goals of President Erdoğan's calculated actions toward the Kurdish issue is to undermine opposition unity while preserving his own nationalist support. Recent moves by his government, including allowing Bahçeli to shake hands symbolically with DEM deputies but also detaining opposition leaders like Ahmet Özer, the mayor of Esenyurt's CHP, have sent conflicting messages, enabling Erdoğan to win over both nationalist and reformist elements of the populace. Erdoğan's crackdown on pro-Kurdish opposition leaders and backing for Bahçeli's ostentatiously accommodating moves have further polarized the CHP on the Kurdish issue.The arrest of Ahmet Özer, a CHP mayor in Esenyurt, has heightened this tension. Özer's detention highlights Erdoğan's use of judicial power to deter the CHP from adopting more inclusive policies, which many see as a message to opposition leaders thinking about reaching out to Kurdish communities. This tactic has amplified divisions within the CHP, as the party must weigh the risks of a moderate stance on the Kurdish issue against the loyalty of its nationalist base. Bahçeli’s Gesture and the Kurdish Peace Process On October 1, 2024, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli made an unprecedented move by shaking hands with DEM deputies, signalling a possible shift toward a new Kurdish peace process. This action, however primarily symbolic, compelled the CHP to reassess its position on the Kurdish issue. Bahçeli's unforeseen engagement afforded Erdoğan a mechanism to undermine the opposition by placing the CHP in a precarious situation. Moderate CHP members perceive this as an opportunity to broaden their electoral base, whilst the party's nationalist faction is apprehensive, concerned that collaboration with Kurdish parties may estrange conventional voters. Özgür Özel’s Leadership and Allegations of Weak Opposition Özgür Özel's position as the party leader adds to the complexity inside the CHP. Within the party, he has come under fire for his calm, non-aggressive approach to Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Özer's detention. Since they saw Özer's detention as a politically motivated move by Erdoğan's government, many CHP members anticipated a more forceful denunciation of the incident. However, Özel's taciturn demeanour has stoked rumours that he is hesitant to take on the government head-on, possibly as a result of pressure from the "normalization process" that some claim brings the CHP's policies closer to Erdoğan's agenda. This lack of strong criticism has deepened distrust within the party, with some members fearing that Özel’s leadership lacks the boldness needed to resist Erdoğan’s tactics. Critics argue that by not openly challenging the arrest of Özer, Özel has missed another opportunity to rally the opposition and assert the CHP’s stance against perceived government overreach. Instead, his restrained response has led to internal divisions and raised doubts about his commitment to the party’s foundational principles of justice and democratic integrity. Ekrem İmamoğlu: A Call for Unity and Inclusivity Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor, represents the CHP’s reformist wing, which advocates for a more inclusive platform. On October 29, 2024, during Republic Day celebrations in Yenikapı, İmamoğlu delivered a speech that hinted at a potential presidential candidacy, declaring, "Their time is over. The day has come. We are ready for this duty," and signaling his readiness to challenge the current political leadership. In his address, İmamoğlu emphasized the need to end a system that disregards the will of the people, advocating for the restoration of merit-based governance and social justice. This speech comes amid ongoing legal and political challenges for İmamoğlu. In December 2023, he was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison and banned from holding political office on charges of allegedly insulting members of Turkey's Supreme Electoral Council. Although İmamoğlu has appealed the verdict, his case remains under review. Despite these challenges, his recent remarks indicate that he remains a significant figure in Turkish politics, potentially positioning himself as a key contender in future presidential elections. İmamoğlu’s inclusive rhetoric and appeal to social justice resonate with those within the CHP who favor a broader, more diverse political base, including moderate and Kurdish voters. His stance, however, risks alienating the CHP’s nationalist faction, which views any engagement with Kurdish issues as a potential threat to national unity. İmamoğlu’s challenge lies in maintaining his appeal to new voter demographics without losing the support of traditional nationalists. Mansur Yavaş: A Rising Nationalist Leader Recent developments in Turkey’s political landscape…