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Erdoğan After Erdoğan: Why the Regime Is Turning on Itself

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s drive to anoint his son Bilal as successor has dramatically raised the stakes in Turkey’s politics. Troubled by health problems and intent on creating a family dynasty, Erdoğan has been grooming his younger son, Necmettin Bilal, as an “undeclared crown prince” to eventually take over. This bid for dynastic succession is unfolding against the backdrop of dismantled democratic institutions, a fractured opposition, and massive family wealth concentrated by Erdoğan’s regime. To secure this transition, Erdoğan has turned inward, seeking not only to crush external challengers but also to discipline or eliminate rival power centers within his own camp. In doing so, he is reviving the authoritarian methods last deployed during the post-2016 purges against the Gülen movement—this time not in the name of regime survival, but to guarantee the Erdoğan family’s continued control of the state. Neutralizing the Opposition Threat Over the past few years Erdoğan has systematically crippled the political opposition, clearing the field of any popular challenger who could threaten his plans. A prime example is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a rising star who twice beat Erdoğan’s party in Istanbul’s mayoral race.In late 2022, a Turkish court convicted him on charges of “insulting” election officials – over a remark criticizing those who annulled the 2019 vote – sentencing him to prison and imposing a political ban in a verdict widely decried as politically motivated. İmamoğlu appealed and stayed in office, but Erdoğan’s government opened a flurry of new investigations into everything from procurement deals to his university degree, clearly aiming to tarnish and disqualify him from a future presidential run. By March 2025, this pressure climaxed in a dramatic dawn raid: İmamoğlu was detained and jailed along with dozens of his staff and associates on allegations of corruption and terror links. Other opposition figures have taken note. Ankara’s mayor Mansur Yavaş, another popular figure often mentioned as a potential presidential candidate, has voiced solidarity with İmamoğlu and condemned the crackdown – but very cautiously. Yavaş and others clearly understand that if they pose too strong a challenge, they “too could be targets” of similar tactics. In fact, he was formally/legally put under threat of an Ankara-based investigation in October 2025, when the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office moved to open a case tied to Ankara Metropolitan Municipality concert spending. This calculated restraint across the opposition spectrum – from major city mayors to jailed Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş – reflects the climate of fear Erdoğan has created. By jailing, banning or intimidating all prominent opponents, Erdoğan is sending an unmistakable message: no challenger will be allowed to upset the succession plan. The silencing of dissent beyond the ballot box, through courts and police, ensures that heading into a post-Erdoğan transition, no opposition candidate remains standing with the organizational strength or public office to mount a serious bid for the presidency. Turning Inward: Silencing the Inner Circle Having cowed the formal opposition, Erdoğan is now turning his purge inwards, toward “inner threats” within his own party and state apparatus that might disrupt a Bilal Erdoğan succession. In recent months, his government has unleashed a wave of crackdowns on prominent individuals and institutions within its own broad camp as well. In a series of highly publicized raids and arrests, Turkish authorities have targeted pro-government media personalities and business conglomerates in what appears to be a purge of “enemies within.” All of these signal that Turkey’s regime is now turning its repressive machinery inward in preparation for a looming succession showdown. The silencing of the inner circle began with the removal of his influential propaganda czar in July 2025, Communications Director Fahrettin Altun, in what insiders described as an internal power struggle related to succession politics. Altun had been a key architect of Erdoğan’s media dominance and a voice in his inner circle, but he reportedly clashed with figures closer to the Erdoğan family. His abrupt removal exposed a widening rift within Erdoğan’s camp as concerns grew over the president’s health and the question of who would inherit his mantle. The intelligence establishment, now led by Erdoğan’s confidant İbrahim Kalın, further cemented its influence with Altun’s downfall, suggesting that those not fully aligned with the family’s succession plans are being pushed aside. Within this framework, Hakan Fidan’s move from the helm of MİT to the Foreign Ministry appears less as a routine cabinet reshuffle and more as a calculated attempt to neutralize an alternative post-Erdoğan power centre. A far more explosive episode of internal intrigue had come to light in April 2025, when a mob-linked whistleblower exposed a secret effort to recover a “blackmail archive” of compromising videos involving senior officials. According to former casino tycoon associate Cemil Önal, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan – Turkey’s ex-spymaster and a presumed heavyweight in post-Erdoğan calculations – sent an envoy to obtain 45 illicit videotapes that could be used to blackmail members of Erdoğan’s ruling party. The envoy, a trusted diplomat with family ties to Erdoğan’s own financial aide, allegedly secured most of the trove but held back five particularly sensitive tapes. When President Erdoğan learned that some footage (reportedly involving the sons of Fidan and a former prime minister) was withheld, he was furious. He immediately recalled and sacked the envoy, and the Foreign Ministry put out a statement angrily denouncing the whistleblower’s claims as “baseless”. No official explanation was given for the envoy’s dismissal. The silence and secrecy around this scandal speak volumes about the stakes: if true, it suggests Fidan may have been quietly amassing kompromat as insurance or leverage – a sign of an emerging parallel power center within the regime. Erdoğan’s swift reaction – firing his own envoy and threatening legal action – implies a zero-tolerance stance toward any such independent scheming. Even a hint that a top lieutenant might be gathering blackmail material was treated as a direct threat to Erdoğan’s authority and, by extension, his succession plans. This covert struggle over incriminating videos highlights how the mafia-state nexus is enmeshed in the succession…