Can Turkey and Russia provide solutions to our broken world?

An online travel agency emailed the other day to say that the final leg of an upcoming flight itinerary had been cancelled, and that I needed to contact the ticket-issuing airline to book an alternative. I rang them up and the customer service representative told me that her airline was unable to help, and that I should contact the partner airline that operated the cancelled flight.

You might not be surprised to learn that this second airline told me they couldn’t do anything without the approval of the ticket-issuing airline, which I called again and a different representative told me, bringing everything full circle, to contact the travel agency.

If the rise of Donald Trump and the approval of Brexit were early signs of a fracturing world stumbling towards collapse, then the extended splintering from Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be seen as confirmation of the trend.

It seems fitting, then, that the leaders of three nations often seen as outliers – portrayed by the US and some of its allies as standing against western ideals and even human progress – are set to meet this week, to stave off mass starvation and another destabilising wave of migration.

Syria is likely to top the agenda when the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran – the so-called Astana trio – meet in Tehran on Tuesday. Just like in their previous meeting in Sochi nearly a year ago, the focus is likely to be Idlib, where Turkey has yet to clear the area of Al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, as it promised to do as part of an early 2020 ceasefire.

Instead, Turkey’s strengthened forces in Syria’s last rebel-held province have mainly co-operated with HTS to stave off a planned, Russia-backed offensive from the Assad regime that could potentially drive up to 2 million more Syrians into Turkey and the EU. The March 2020 truce has been widely seen as frayed almost since it was signed, but nearly 30 months later it remains – a duct-taped dam holding back a swelling refugee tide.

Syria is likely to top the agenda when the so-called Astana trio meet in Tehran on Tuesday

A key element of the Syria talks will be Ankara’s main objective in the north-east – eroding the strength of the Kurdish-led SDF, a partner in the US-led fight against ISIS that Turkey views as a terror outfit, and pushing the group away from its border in yet another planned offensive. Reports suggest Moscow and Tehran have yet to endorse Turkey’s new incursion, which may mean a bit of horse-trading on Idlib.

Even more urgent will be the resumption of Turkey-Russia talks to establish a secure Black Sea shipping route for the 22 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukrainian ports. The pandemic had already strained global food distribution before Russia’s late-February invasion shuttered Ukrainian ports and Moscow stopped exporting its own grain.

Because Russia and Ukraine jointly represent about one third of global wheat exports, grain prices have since hit historic highs and now 43 countries, including Eritrea and Somalia, are at risk of famine and showing signs of unrest, according to the World Food Programme.

Turkey has again stepped in as mediator. In Istanbul last week, Turkish, Ukrainian, Russian and UN officials seemed to break the impasse, agreeing to set up a co-ordination centre to facilitate grain exports by ensuring navigational safety and joint control of ports.

Ukrainian and Russian officials plan to meet again in Turkey this week after the Tehran summit to finalise the plan and clear the way for life-saving grain shipments. The deal hinges on a considerable degree of trust between Kyiv and Moscow, which seems an impossibility given Ukraine’s campaign to label Russia a terrorist state.

If it does go through, Russia might be seen as a food saviour despite its invasion and effects, estimated at $27 billion in damage to Ukraine’s agriculture sector, from export blockage to stolen grain, unharvested crops and destroyed machinery, according to a Ukrainian report.

Media reports have indicated that Russia is also expected to purchase hundreds of Iranian drones during President Vladimir Putin’s visit, boosting its forces against Ukraine while supporting the defence sector of Iran, a key foe of Israel, the US and a number of Arab countries.

All three summit attendees are currently battling US sanctions: Russia for its Ukraine invasion; Iran for its nuclear programme; and Turkey for its purchase of Russian-made missile defence systems. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi and Mr Putin are likely to share a few pointers on evading and surviving western embargoes.

We may have to get used to the less international law-abiding states helping resolve global crises. In his new New York Times’ bestseller, The End of the World is Just the Beginning, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan lays out how a combination of factors − Mr Trump’s trade war with China; ageing populations in China, Germany, Italy, South Korea and beyond; pandemic-related supply-chain hurdles; and much of the developed world disconnecting from Russia − is leading to deglobalisation and widespread dysfunction.

“Everything has become so exposed,” he said last week on a podcast. “The bedrock that allows globalisation to function, the idea that materials, energy, food, manufactured products can just flow effortlessly − that’s all stopped.”

The 2020s sometimes feel like we’re standing on a frozen lake watching the cracks and splinters of the melting ice inch closer. Think of Germany and much of Europe peering into a future without Russian gas and desperately seeking new energy sources. Think of the collapse of cryptocurrency, the petering out of the climate change movement, widely seen as existential for humanity, or the recent curbing of the rights of American women. Think of the finance chiefs of the world’s 20 most powerful states pledging last week to address global food insecurity while making no move to actually do so.

Think of my cancelled flight. I did eventually call the travel agency, which again told me that only the ticket-issuing airline could help. In the end, after more than two hours on the phone I bit the bullet and shelled out for an entirely new flight that will put me within shouting distance of my destination.

In a broken world, unpalatable solutions are often our only recourse.

By: David Lepeska, a veteran journalist who has reported widely across the region and contributed to top outlets including the New York Times, the Guardian, and the Atlantic, is the Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs columnist for The National

Source. The National