NEW CSH POLICY BRIEF INDICATES ELECTION FRAUD IN FIRST ROUND OF TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2023
For some, all hopes have vanished into thin air, while others look forward with hope to the new chapter of the Erdogan era.
From May 14 to 28, 2023, Turkey’s future was decided in a presidential election that turned out to be closer than many had long expected. Just as quickly, questions were raised as to whether everything was above board in the election.
Using statistical election fraud detection tools, Peter Klimek and Stefan Thurner analyzed the first round of the 2023 Turkish presidential election. Here’s what they discovered:
- 2.4% of electoral units may have been affected by ballot-stuffing practices in favour of Erdogan.
- The magnitude of these distortions has decreased, down from 8.5% in 2018 (to a point where the ballot stuffing test does not detect statistically significant effects).
- The researchers found small, but statistically significant evidence of voter manipulation.
- Areas with few and smaller polling stations had significantly inflated vote and turnout numbers, again, in favour of Erdogan.
- These signs of electoral fraud were accompanied by other striking inequalities in campaigning (e.g., differences in television airtime).
A LITTLE BIT OF BACKGROUND:
Recep Tayyip Erdogan (AKP) won the first round of the election on May 28, 2023 with 49.52%. Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu came in second with 44.88% of the vote. The turnout for the first round of voting was 87% (55,833,153 votes). He again won the runoff election on May 28, 2023, with 52% of the vote. In order to be able to examine this runoff for election fraud, the CSH researchers are currently still waiting for the relevant data.
This statistical election toolkit, developed by CSH scientists, has been used in several elections to detect detect statistical traces of voter fraud – for example, it showed no electoral fraud in Brazil’s 2022 election and massive electoral fraud in Russia’s September 2021 election.
NOTE:
While detailed election results are published in Turkey, this is not done in a format that allows the data to be easily downloaded and analyzed. Before that, some effort is required to collect and collate the data, which is why we are unable to publish this Policy Brief immediately after the election.
In addition, final election results are typically announced and published by the Supreme Election Council several days after the election. As soon as we receive the runoff election data, we will update our analysis.
