With Russian forces poised to attack Ukraine, Turkish-made drones are set to face a big test in battle as well as a challenge to Turkey’s relations with Russia.ADVERTISING
Russian tanks continue to exercise close to the Ukrainian border; the gunfire is just training for now. As Russia continues to build up its forces, Turkey continues to supply Ukraine with newly developed armed drones in the face of Moscow’s warnings.
“Turkey is not happy about Russian expansion. Turkey is not happy that Russia is flexing its muscles in the former Soviet space,” claims Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the European Council.
“Ankara is seeing this as an opportunity to improve relations with NATO,” adds Aydintasbas. “Relations with Washington, they have really been up and down and sometimes quite tense over the last few years. “
“So, the Ukraine crisis is a chance to polish Turkey’s credentials as a NATO member. And it’s been particularly supportive of Ukraine by way of selling weapons but also drones.”
Drones as weapons
From Libya to Syria, Turkish drones, or unmanned air vehicles – also known as UAVs – have quickly gained a reputation as being cheap and effective.
“A single armed drone equipped with a couple of bombs may destroy a whole air defuse battery or a very expensive electronic warfare system or take out some armed vehicles ” said defense analyst Arda Mevlutoglu.
Turkish drones drew world attention in 2020 after playing a key role in Azerbaijan’s defeat of Armenian-backed forces in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. The drones are most recently playing a key role in turning the tide against Tigray rebels in the Ethiopian civil war.
But defense analyst Mevlutoglu warns that in Ukraine the Turkish drones would face a far more formidable challenge from Russian forces.
“In conflicts such as Syria, Libya Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish drones were used against air defenses of low quality, or virtually no air defenses at all.
However Russian army possesses a large number of sophisticated air defense equipment, electronic warfare equipment,” said Mevlutoglu.
In October, the Ukrainian army’s use of Turkish drones against Russian-backed separatists underscored – some analysts say – the drones’ importance not only militarily but psychologically.
“That (October drone attack) increased morale not only in the Ukrainian army but also in the general public,” said Petro Burkovskiy is, a senior fellow at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kyiv.
“It showed that, yes, Ukrainians can resist and can defend themselves from the Russian region in Donbas, and that also made Turkey more visible as an ally.
Russian condemnation
Russia was quick to condemn Ukraine’s use of Turkish drones.
The Turkish and Russian presidents have developed strong ties, raising concerns at NATO. Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian gas and cooperation in Syria. But if Turkish-made drones end up causing Russian casualties, bilateral ties could face a big challenge.
“Turkish ammunitions and also UAVs would be used by the Ukrainian side, and that would be not very acceptable for the Russians,” warned Mustafa Aydin is a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.
“If Turkey is pushed for a choice, Turkey would choose the western alliance and NATO, but it’s very difficult to predict whether Ukraine is that eventuality,” added Aydin.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now trying to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, hoping that averting confrontation will avoid a difficult choice for Turkey.
By: Dorian Jones
Source:RFI
