Following Friday prayers at his new sectarian monument, the Hagia Sophia mosque, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey is recommencing drilling surveys in an area of the eastern Mediterranean Sea internationally recognized as belonging to Greece.
Turkey recently suspended plans to conduct the surveys after Germany offered to mediate with Greece. Erdogan now says Greece isn’t living up to its commitments. The critical issue: seeing as the Greek and Turkish armed forces are engaging in increasingly aggressive maneuvers, a conflict cannot be ruled out.
Erdogan knows this but is gambling on Turkey’s superior navy deterring Greece. The president is also likely hoping that this gambit will strengthen his increasingly fragile domestic situation by playing to ultra-nationalist sentiments. That second point takes on particular importance for Erdogan. Wasting money on patronage and pet projects such as his 1,000 room palace, Erdogan has failed to undertake a much needed economic reform program. Making matters worse, the coronavirus pandemic has gutted Turkey’s vital summer tourist economy. So, with Erdogan’s AK party support declining, a play to the ultra-nationalists offers Erdogan a chance to consolidate himself on the right. While smaller than the AK party and its primary CHP Kemalist competitor, the ultra-nationalist MHP and iYi parties love showdowns with Greece.
The risk, then, is that Turkey will take military action to prevent Greece from interceding against its unlawful survey efforts. What would happen next is hard to say. The Greek air force is far better trained than the Turkish equivalent, and the Greek army might hope to establish area denial strongholds in the Aegean Sea. But further out at sea, Turkey has the advantage, and Erdogan knows it. Russia would also almost certainly seek to take advantage of the situation by supporting an escalation between the two NATO member states. Erdogan would also try to use Russian President Vladimir Putin’s involvement to his advantage, pressuring NATO and the European Union to grant him concessions in return for restored peace.
Yet, it’s not just Greece that Turkey is threatening.
Ankara on Thursday also explicitly rejected a newly reached Greek-Egyptian maritime border agreement. Erdogan’s foreign minister announced, “It is without a doubt that Turkey will not allow any activity at the area in question and will resolutely continue to defend her legitimate interests.” This is serious stuff. The Egyptian-Turkish relationship is already very tense, with both nations actively supporting opposing sides in the ongoing Libyan civil war. Considering his reputation as a general-nationalist president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt would be reluctant to allow any perceived Turkish provocation in the Mediterranean to go unmet.
Where does this leave us?
Well, put simply, that a summer that normally sees the eastern Mediterranean flocked with tourists might soon exist under the specter of conflict.
By: Tom Rogan
Source: Washington Examiner
