What will happen after Erdogan is gone?
The portion of the inheritance will take the stage. We have already started to see the signals. Nobody has objectives such as a radical change, democratization, lifting the human rights regime to the level of advanced democracies, safeguarding the separation of powers especially the independence and neutrality of the judiciary, bringing back the constitutional order, repealing the decree-laws entirely without considering any consequences, or revealing what happened on 15th of July. In case this is the normalization they are talking about, I have bad news for you. Because the absence of a political opposition that is capable of doing the above and could promise to take requisite democratization and normalization steps is as plain as a pikestaff. The expectations that focus on Erdogan’s and AKP’s abdication do not bother questioning the next step. There is only one single thought: “Let them just go, tomorrow will take care of itself!”
However, Erdogan and AKP are not the only causatives for today’s regime. Whoever tries to leave Erdogan and AKP holding the bag makes no mistake that they are wrong with their calculation and sabotaging the opposition’s medium and long-term course of action. By all means, it is correct to index the expectations to the post-Erdogan era. However, rectification can never be an automated outcome after Erdogan. Maybe you could just hold out your hopes only by anticipating something which is quite against the mathematics of political science, but this kind of strategy focusing on saving the day will not be anything other than a motivational lecturer. It is necessary to know the truth and take a position accordingly. The regime will not collapse after Erdogan or AKP, it will only change hands. Law will not arrive as a gift after the regime changes hands. Courts will not be independent. Human rights violations will not come to an end. Decree-laws will not be repealed. The league of Russia-China-Iran will not be abandoned. The EU process cannot be welcomed again. The Kurdish problem cannot be pushed into a solution-oriented process.
Let me explain.
This regime was not found solely by Erdogan and AKP. Even though we are fed up with writing and reading it, some people insistently have difficulties acknowledging or simply forget about the situation altogether. This regime has stakeholders; aside from Erdogan and AKP; MHP as the small stakeholder; the deep structure that forms the underwater part of the iceberg; the opposition as a part of the regime to adopt the discourse of the regime, meaning CHP, IYI Party, and other parties out of the parliament; and even some members of HPD who never seize to speak the language of the regime partially in a rhetorical level. These altogether form a regime. They all have responsibilities at different levels about what is happening in Turkey.
Let’s make something clear. Yes, if AKP and MHP are no more in power, it is something good. Democratic forces wouldn’t have any kind of objections to this since they are politically responsible for the regime and human rights violations in Turkey. However, what is going to happen after the AKP-MHP rule? Another staff will take over. So, who will take over? Whoever may that be! What is it to you? You have to focus only on one point: Who opposes the discourse of the regime among the ones who have the potential to take over? For example, which politician or party makes a promise by stating: “We are in favor of repealing all of the decree-laws with all possible consequences and we will be repealing all decree-laws first thing after coming to power?” Is there such a promise? Well, I have been following all of the news about Turkey on social media religiously in the last 5 years. I have never seen any political party or leader making such a promise. Yes, sometimes we come across a politician who talks about the injustice and unlawful government actions faced by the people who are punished by decree-laws. However, no political leader or party made an official promise as such up to this point.
Do we have any opposition that does not use the expression “Fethullahist Terrorist Organization-FETO” that was fabricated by Erdogan and his power stakeholders to persecute anybody who disagrees with their semi-authoritarian regime? Including HDP! None! What is “FETO”? It is the cornerstone of the regime discourse. You, me, s/he, us, you, they… All of us are considered or labeled as members of “FETO” according to this damned regime! At most, the best of the opposition states that the actual “FETO” members should be separated from the ones who are not the members of “FETO”. In other words, the general taking among the opposition is that there is a terrorist organization called “FETO” and the selection should be carried out in a good way. This is the spirit of Yenikapi. In other words, it is the manifest of the regime. What did the opposition agree to in Yenikapi? They accepted that the 17 December 2013 was a civilian coup attempt! Whose argument was this? It belonged to Erdogan and AKP. The fact is that the police, prosecutors, and judges who carried out these investigations are in jail! Sometimes you witness the opposition talking about the 17 December corruption. Heaven knows why, they bypass all of the police who revealed these corruption files, the prosecutors who prosecuted them, and judges! Why? Should we not ask that?
After Erdogan is removed from power, one of these people will take over. The portion of the inheritance will take the stage. However, none of the oppositional parties or politicians rejects the regime. I would not even feel the need to write a single line about what I have just written in case there was an opposition who lays claim to 17 December 2013 investigations; shares the information that the tapes revealing the terrifying bribe and corruption were real; put the abnormalities that happened on 15 July 2016 on their agenda seriously and as a priority. However, no such opposition exists in Turkey. Let’s not live in a fool’s paradise. The mentality that will take over the inheritance will be an apparatus to the current regime just like Erdogan and AKP. In other words, the regime which was established by Erdogan, his power circle and stakeholders are already pretty much consolidate which means the regime will continue whether Erdogan and others that built it remain in power or not.
The expectation focusing on everything to get back on track after Erdogan and AKP’s departure, I am once again underlining, will not be possible according to the given political circumstances. Of course, political science does not harbor any mathematical formula, so it is hard to predict what could happen soon. Yet, political science depends on the chain of observation plus logic. In an empirical social reality, an opposition that might transform the regime does not exist for now. Erdogan and AKP’s heir is the regime itself.
Make no mistake about it there is no harm in saying what has happened or is happening. Telling someone who has cancer he is as fit as a fiddle will not bring any benefits for him. On the contrary, it would substantially, even fatally harm him. If you misdiagnose or not diagnose at all, no cure will be available. Let’s get out of this vicious circle already.
By: Efe Caman
Source: Poli Turco