A senior Russian diplomat has suggested that a string of recent drone incidents inside Türkiye may have been a “possible provocation,” offering the first known comment from a Russian official after multiple unmanned aircraft entered Turkish airspace or were found crashed on Turkish territory this month.
In remarks to the opposition-leaning Cumhuriyet daily, the diplomat — not identified by name — said the incidents “could be an attempt at provocation,” while stressing that Moscow maintains good relations with Ankara. The diplomat did not specify who might benefit from such a provocation.
The comments come after three separate episodes in December that fueled domestic debate in Türkiye over air-defense readiness and the risk of spillover from the war in Ukraine into the Black Sea region.
Drone shot down after entering airspace from the Black Sea
The first incident occurred on Dec. 15, when Türkiye’s Defense Ministry said an unmanned aerial vehicle approached Turkish airspace from the Black Sea and was assessed to be “out of control.” Turkish F-16 fighter jets were scrambled and the aircraft was destroyed over an unpopulated area to avoid risks to civilians and air traffic, according to Turkish officials.
Turkish authorities have not publicly identified the drone’s operator or origin, and Cumhuriyet reported that debris recovery efforts continued after the shootdown because the drone fragmented on impact.
Orlan-10 wreckage found in Kocaeli
A second incident surfaced days later, when residents found wreckage in the northwestern province of Kocaeli. Türkiye’s Interior Ministry said preliminary findings indicated the aircraft was a Russian-made Orlan-10, a reconnaissance and surveillance drone, and that an investigation was under way.
Reuters reported the ministry’s assessment in a Dec. 19 dispatch, noting that the drone was discovered in a field and that Turkish authorities were continuing technical examinations.
Third drone discovery in Balıkesir’s Manyas district
A third drone episode emerged on Dec. 20, when images of another downed UAV were circulated from Balıkesir’s Manyas district. Cumhuriyet cited witness accounts suggesting the drone may have come down earlier in the month — around Dec. 10 — but only became public later.
Some open-source and defense reporting has suggested the platform could resemble the Russian-origin Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone, though Turkish authorities have not issued a definitive public identification of the Manyas wreckage.
Ankara warns of Black Sea spillover
Turkey has urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise caution in the Black Sea following the shootdown, warning that the conflict must not jeopardize regional security and navigation.
At home, the incidents have also triggered questions about how far the Dec. 15 drone traveled toward the capital before being engaged and why official information has remained limited — a debate that Cumhuriyet said intensified after the later discoveries, including the confirmed Russian-made Orlan-10.
A careful Russian message — and unanswered questions
By framing the episodes as a potential “provocation,” the Russian diplomat’s remarks appear aimed at signaling that Moscow does not want the drone incidents to harden into a bilateral crisis with Ankara — while leaving open the possibility that a third party, or an uncontrolled battlefield dynamic, could be driving the breaches.
For now, the central questions remain unresolved: who launched the Dec. 15 drone, what caused it to cross into Turkish airspace, and whether the later crashed platforms arrived through navigational failure, electronic warfare effects, or deliberate routing. Turkish authorities say investigations are ongoing
