Greece, Turkey and Oil Raise Fears of War in the Mediterranean

As a Greek-American who lived in Athens for three years, and as a U.S. Navy mariner, I got to know the eastern Mediterranean well. It has been a strategic crossroads throughout history for Greeks, Persians, Egyptians, Jews, Phoenicians, Romans, Crusaders and more modern sea warriors.

Whenever I’ve sailed the waters, during the Cold War and afterward, there has been intense disagreement about maritime boundaries, conflicting claims for natural resources, and other geopolitical pressures stemming from the unstable relations among Greece, Turkey, Israel, Cyprus and Syria.

Unfortunately, I’ve never seen things more volatile in the eastern Mediterranean than right now — even in periods when Israel has been in combat against its neighbors ashore. What are the factors driving this tension, and what is the role of the U.S.?

First, the current turbulence stems largely from the discovery of large deposits of oil and natural gas in the seabed. Estimates put the size of the deposits at around 2 billion barrels of oil and 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, and the nations of the region naturally are moving aggressively to exploit the wealth. In January 2019, a loose consortium to develop the resources was forged, consisting of Israel, Egypt, Italy, Greece, Jordan and the Palestinian territories — but not Turkey.

The Turks were understandably incensed, and have dispatched oil exploration vessels and drilling ships escorted by Turkish Navy warships. One, the exploration ship Oruc Reis, entered what Greece considers its territorial waters this summer, putting tensions at a new high. Turkey’s actions have earned the condemnation of the European Union.

Second, the eastern Mediterranean is also the transit zone for Turkish and Russian warships sending arms to opposing sides in the Libyan civil war. Turkey is supporting the United Nations-recognized government in the capital of Tripoli, while Russia (along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab nations) is supporting the rebel forces of General Khalifa Haftar.

The EU is trying to enforce an arms embargo on the Libyan conflict (much as I did while commanding North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces during the 2011 civil war). In June, this resulted in a confrontation between French and Turkish warships, which illuminated each other with their fire-control radars, the final step before firing a missile. NATO allies coming this close to a major military incident is unheard of.

President Emmanuel Macron of France, which supports the claims of Greece and Cyprus, calls stopping Turkey’s aggressive actions a “red-line” issue. “When it comes to Mediterranean sovereignty, I have to be consistent in deeds and words,” he told reporters last week. “I can tell you that the Turks only consider and respect that.”